Anthropometric trends and the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in a Lithuanian urban population aged 45–64 years

AIMS To estimate trends in anthropometric indexes from 1992 to 2008 and to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in relation to anthropometric indexes (body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio, waist:height ratio). METHODS Data from the three surveys (1992-2008) are presented. A random sample of 5147 subjects aged 45-64 years was selected for statistical analysis. During follow-up there were 141 deaths from cardiovascular disease (excluding those with cardiovascular disease at entry). Cox's regression was used to estimate the associations between anthropometric indexes and cardiovascular disease mortality. RESULTS During a 17-year period among men, the prevalence of obesity (body mass index ⩾ 30 kg/m(2)) increased from 18.4% to 32.1% (p < 0.001) and a high level of waist:hip ratio (> 0.9) from 59.3% to 72.9% (p < 0.001). The risk profile of obesity did not change in women, but prevalence of a high level of waist:hip ratio (> 0.85) increased from 25.9% to 41.5% (p < 0.001). Multivariable-adjusted Cox's regression models showed that body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio, waist:height ratio were associated with cardiovascular disease mortality risk only in men (hazard ratios 1.40, 1.45, 1.49, 1.46 respectively (p < 0.01)). CONCLUSIONS Our data indicate that anthropometric measures such as body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio and waist:height ratio are good indicators of cardiovascular disease mortality risk only in men aged 45-64 years.